Showing posts with label Interest rates. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Interest rates. Show all posts

Thursday, 16 April 2015

Fixed or Variable Rates for Home Loans?

In recent months, there has been a lot of news on interest rates and indeed the rates are changing at a much faster pace than before. Interest rates on the international level are all changing. US interest rates are changing, Singapore's interest rates are changing too.

With the ongoing changes, now it’s a good time to look at the benefits or disadvantages of both fixed rates and variable rates for our loans.Most of us will be taking loans when we buy a house. When interest rates change, we will get affected, big or small, depending on the home loan packages we take.

Credit: pixabay.com

In Singapore, there are basically 2 typical types of home loan packages offered by the banks. The first is short term fixed interest rates and the second is variable interest rates or SIBOR dependant rates. Interest rates are generally low in Singapore so a lot of people go for variable rates packages. But we have to take note that if interest rates rise, the monthly instalment we pay will go up as well.

If you own properties or is planning to buy properties in countries like Australia, the situation is different. Some of the fixed rate packages in Australia actually have lower rates as compared to the variable rate packages for a short period of time. It is important to do our own research to get the best deals when buying properties in Singapore or Australia. Newcastle Permanent is an independent, mutual, retail financial service provider which provides home loan packages in Australia.

Let's take a look at some of the benefits and disadvantages of fixed vs variable rates.

Fixed Rate Home Loan

A fixed rate home loan can provide you a sense of financial certainty because the interest rates and repayments will remain the same for the set period of time of your choosing.

Benefits:
  • Consistent monthly payments
  • Best for long term loan payments
  • For home-owners who expects interests rates will go up and would want to lock in a lower interest rates now
  • Protection from interest rate hikes

Disadvantages:
  • Monthly payments are higher than Variable rates
  • Home-owners cannot take advantage of any interest rate decreases that might occur during the life of the loan
  • Most plans incur a fee when breaking out of a fixed rate before end of the loan term. This happens when there is transfer of home ownership due to sale or refinancing over to another lender.


Variable Rate Home Loan 

With variable rate home loan, market forces and the economic climate affect the amount of interest you pay for your mortgages. 

Benefits:
  • Monthly payments are cheaper than fixed rate loans
  • Best for those who plan to keep the loan for a short period of time

Disadvantages:
  • No protection against interest rate changes
  • Monthly payments will fluctuate in line with market interest rates

What happens when interest rates change?

$500,000 loan on 5 year fixed rate

If we take a $500,000 loan at 5 year fixed rate, we will not be affected when interest rates increase,. However, when interest rates decrease, we can't take advantage of it. 

$500,000 loan on variable rate

If we take a $500,000 loan at a variable rate in Australia, the variable rate loan will adjust accordingly if interest rates increase and we'll be affected. If interest rates decrease, we can take advantage of it and our monthly repayments will be adjusted lower. 

1% increase on a $500,000 loan

If interest rates increase by 1% on a $500,000 loan package for a 25 years term, the monthly repayment would increase by around $295. Those on the fixed rate package will not be affected while those on variable rates packages will be affected by this rise in interest rate. 


There you have it, the benefits and disadvantages of fixed vs variable rate home loans. Choose your loan packages wisely and you could save quite a bit of money on your monthly home loan instalments. 

*This is a sponsored post by Newcastle Permanent

Tuesday, 16 September 2014

Housing loans - What to choose and what happens to your loans when interest rates goes up?

There are many loan packages to choose from when you buy a house in Singapore. HDB provides concessionary interest rate to eligible flat buyers at 0.1% above the CPF ordinary account rates. It is currently at 2,6%. But, with the low interest rates environment, banks are offering very attractive low interest rates packages from as low as 1.5%. That is 1% lower than the HDB loans that is being offered. However, low interest rates may not be a good thing. They are most likely associated with variable interest rates packages or floating rates packages. What happens to your loans when interest rates goes up?


2 types of loan packages



Before we look into what happens if interest rates goes up, let's take a look at 2 typical types of loan packages offered by the banks. The first is short term fixed interest rates and the second is variable interest rates and SIBOR dependant rates. There may be other packages offered by foreign banks but let's focus on the local banks in Singapore here first.


Short Term fixed interest rates

I've check on the local banks in Singapore and they seem to offer only short term fixed rates packages. For POSB, its 5-8 years fixed. For UOB they do not display their packages. For OCBC they only offer fixed rates for the first 1-2 years and for DBS, its similiar to POSB. Typically, the interest rates offered on fixed rate packages are higher than the variable interest rates packages.

After the fixed rates term, the interest rates will be recalculated. For OCBC, it is stated that thereafter, the rates will be based on the bank’s Board Rates minus a discount stated in the Letter of Offer. It simply means that your monthly loan repayment amounts may change after the fixed rate periods.


Variable interest rates and SIBOR dependant rates 

For variable rates packages, it can be based on the bank's board rate minus a discount stated in the letter of offer as in the case of OCBC. It can also be SIBOR dependant rates where the rates follow the SIBOR rate plus a fixed percentage. For OCBC, its 3 Months SIBOR + 1.25% throughout. So if SIBOR rates increases, the interest rate increases as well. Confusing? Not to worry, I'll explain what is SIBOR below.


What is SIBOR?

Some may ask what exactly is SIBOR? In its original form, it is called Singapore Interbank Offer Rate. This is a rate which Singapore banks lend to each other. You may have heard of the London Interbank Offer rate (LIBOR) which is used in the UK.

We can find the SIBOR rate from Monetary Authority of Singapore(MAS) website. The 3 months SIBOR is currently at 0.407. Most banks use either the 3 months or 1 month as a benchmark for their SIBOR dependant rates. So, if you take up the OCBC SIBOR dependant rate loan package, the interest currently would be 1.657% (0.407 + 1.25%). This is somewhat 1% lower than the 2.6% rate package which HDB offers.

But, we should not choose a loan package just because it has a lower interest rate. We have to take into consideration what if interest rates do increase? To do that, we need to take a look at the interest rate history in the US as well as the SIBOR


Interest rates may go up?


I manage to find a good chart illustrating the history of interest rates in the US from 1790. That was a long long time ago. From what i see, the average interest rates throughout history is about 5-6%. We're in an era of extremely low interest rates now. Will interest rates go up from here?



Credit: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/Long-Term.png
Click image to enlarge

The lowest interest rates the US had was about 0.25% just last year. How about the interest rates in Singapore? We should be concern about this as it will definitely affect the loans we have to pay. Singapore normally follow the interest rates of big economies such as the US.

I only manage to find the data of Singapore's 3 months and 1 month SIBOR rates from 1987. The data was take from MAS website which I plotted into a chart.

Click image to enlarge


From 1987 till now, the 3 months SIBOR has been on a long term down trend. The reason for the decrease in interest rates is to encourage growth through spending during times of recession or crisis. As interest rates are lower, businesses and individuals can borrow more money at a cheaper rate to buy houses, cars, lands, build factories etc.

Interest rates will rise when the economy starts to pick up. This is to control the level of inflation in the economy. If interest rates do not rise by then, hyper inflation may happen which causes prices to rise at an unimaginable level.

What happens if interest rates goes up?

Interest rates are near zero now. It is a matter of time before it rises. There's no way interest rates can go any lower. Look at the time in the 1940s when interest rates were near zero also. It later went on a 30 year rise up to 14% in the 1980s. When it rises, your monthly loan repayment amount will rise as well. But, how will it affect us? Let's take a look at some scenarios.


Bought a HDB flat with $300,000 loan at 1.6%

If you've bought a HDB flat and took up $300,000 loan, your monthly loan instalment base on 1.6% interest and 25 years repayment period is $1,214 per month. This may be the sum many of you are paying for your housing loan now.

If interest rates rises to 2.6%, your monthly loan will then be increased to $1,361. That is more than a $100 increase per month. If interest rates increased further to 3.6%, your loan instalment would also increase further to $1,518. This is $200 more from the original amount you had to pay.

Do also note that the TDSR framework set by the MAS will still apply when you refinance. The TDSR means that your housing loan repayments, after adding all your repayment obligations (student loans, credit card debts, car loans, personal loans, etc.), cannot exceed 60% of your income. When interest rates goes up, the standard practice is to switch to another home loan with a lower interest. But with the TDSR, some who try to refinance may find that they don't meet the 60% TDSR which means they will be stuck with their higher interest rates home loans.

However, those who bought a residential property before the TDSR rules were introduced will be exempted. The option to purchase (OTP) must be granted before 29 June 2013. The owner will be granted exemption as long as he occupies the residential property that is being refinanced.


Be prepared for an increase in interest rates

If you're planning to take a loan or have already taken a loan for your new house, do take into consideration and prepare yourself in the event of a rise in interest rates. The rise in your loans amount would probably be in the range of $100-$200+ monthly for a $300,000 loan.

For those with even higher loan amounts, the increase would definitely be bigger. For a $500,000 loan, a 2% increase in interest rates will increase your loan amount by about $500 per month. Are you prepared for it?


HDB loan vs bank loans

The HDB loan interest rate is pegged at 0.1% above the CPF ordinary account interest rates. The rate is not fixed and may increase and decrease as well. However, as we know, the rates of the CPF rarely changes. Many people have seek for the increase in CPF interest rates but it still did not happened. Well, i hope it does not. If CPF interest rates really increases, those people with housing loans from HDB would be in trouble.

There isn't a long term fixed rate loan package in Singapore. DBS and POSB offers 5-8 years fixed rate which is probably the longest we can see. The HDB loan is also not a fixed rate loan but at least its rates doesn't changes too frequently. In anticipation for a rise in interest rates, we should look for alternatives which gives us peace in our lives. You can refinance for your current loan or choose the right loan package when buying a new house. It is still not too late to make the right decision today.

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2. A couple should buy a 3 room HDB flat if combined gross income is less than $4000

Friday, 1 November 2013

How the economy works? - A must watch video

I just watched this awesome video on how the economy works. As an economics student, i find this video very good in explaining the concepts of economics. Guaranteed that after you watch this, you'll understand why some events like rising prices, recessions have to happen. The video also explained what is credit and debt and why increasing productivity is important. After watching this, you'll understand the purpose of some of the policies that the Singapore government has made and why they do it. Understanding this will also help you in your investment decisions.

Enjoy the short 30 mins video!!




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Sunday, 27 October 2013

How has the STI performed in 2013 so far?

It's already the end of October now. Only 2 more months to the end of this year. So how has the markets performed so far? 2012 was a good year with the STI up about 17%. How about this year so far? A chart tells the whole story


The first arrow shows the STI performance in 2012. The second arrow shows the performance in 2013 so far. The conclusion? The market has been flat. All the gains in the first half of 2013 were wiped out in just one month and till now, the market has been flat. 

My portfolio has been flat too except for the one US stock which i bought that doubled in value. For the SG market, the returns are very minimal except for the average 5%-6% dividends i'm getting. 

Let's recap. The wiped off were mostly due to the fall in REITs. I've blog about the REITs phenomenon where almost all the reits fall at the same time here. This is due to the fact that the Federal reserve may end QE soon and cause interest rates to rise.

I still keep to my believe that interest rates will definitely rise in the future. No matter how long they delay the end of QE, it will still end. It is a matter of time. Property is still hot in Singapore. Reits were also hot in the market. This will end soon. Very soon indeed. Even our minister says property prices will not keep going up. Have you prepared yourself for what is about to happen? 


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Saturday, 14 September 2013

The dangers of over leveraging on debt

This post is inspired by comments from my previous post on Recession Heroes Ep 5 - Resilience during tough times. Too many people have too much debts causing problems for them and their families when they lose their jobs. Housing debts are one of the major debts among young people in our current generation now. When buying a house, remember to plan ahead and do not over commit. A general guideline is not to use more than 30-35% of your monthly income to pay for housing loans. However, different people have different circumstances. You will know your situation yourself. Plan accordingly.

MAS has reported that statistics show rising household debts in Singapore is worrying. Measures have been put in place the past few months and is still ongoing currently.




National development minister Khaw Boon Wan has also spoke regarding the future spikes in interest rates.

Mr Khaw said: "They assume two things. Property prices will keep going (up). Two, interest rates will keep on remaining low. Both are wrong and therefore one day, both will collapse on them. So, if you are over-committed, let's say you can only afford a 3-room flat, (but) you decide to buy five room flat. Yes, based on today's interest rates you can afford a five-room flat. But, when interest rates go up as it will, you will no longer be able to afford a five-room flat and what will happen, your bank will start calling you up to please top up or sell your flat and that's when trouble starts."
In addition, Mr Khaw said the high property prices will not last in the long run.
At the same time, he acknowledged he cannot be certain when and how much prices will come down.
He added: "Only when you can get enough buyers who can afford, will prices stay up, if not they will come down. Today because of low interest rates, this bubble is being pushed up and sustained longer than it should have. So, it will collapse in a matter of time and therefore do not think that prices will keep on going up."
~ Quoted from Channel News Asia 



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Thursday, 5 September 2013

Market update - Substantial rise in treasury yields

Update of Treasury yields in the US

2yr Treasury Yields - 0.51%
10yr Treasury Yields - 2.98%
30yr Treasury Yields - 3.88%

What do these numbers means? A rise in yields implies a fall in bond prices. If you have investment in bonds,  most likely you'll see a drop in your portfolio value. Short term yields have already more than doubled from 0.24 to. 0.51.

This also means that interest rates are rising. Those with floating rate loan packages will feel the effect of higher interest rates. If you have substantial loans like housing and car loans, do take note of the impact.
The good news is a rise in interest rates usually signify a economic recovery. Money is flowing out of bonds(which is considered a safer asset) into equities and other more risky assets.

Dry bulk shippers have bottomed out from its low and have risen substantially the past one month. Baltic dry index (BDI) is also rising indicating an increase in shipping freight rates. Will Singapore shipping stocks start to recover as well? This will need to be monitored further.

Reits and property stocks will be negatively impacted by the rise in interest rates. Reits generally have high debt to service ratios which means they borrow a substantial amount of money.  Higher interest rates will impact a reit's profit.

There may be an adverse effect as some Singaporeans are overleveraged on debt. Some with debts of more than 60% of their income. Will there be more loan defaulters and bankruptcy? That we'll not be sure and need to see how the situation develops.


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Monday, 29 July 2013

The history of 9.5% Post Office Savings Bank (POSB) interest rates and the effects of inflation

The current interest rate is so low in Singapore. Currently, most banks pay 0.05% on bank deposit accounts. You've heard it! Its a tiny 0.05%. That means if you save $100000 in the bank, the interest you receive at the end of the year is only $50!! What can $50 buy you in Singapore? The most a decent family meal and that's it.

Why is the interest rate so low now? I've found out a very interesting history of the savings deposit rates offered by POSB which was known as Post Office Savings Bank in the past. The highest interest ever recorded was 9.5% on 1 August, 1981. I am not old enough to have experienced the history of interest rates in Singapore so i asked my parents and also searched on it in the internet.

My parents told me in those days, they had an average of 5-6% interest from the savings they put in the bank. Every year, they had hundreds or thousands of dollars in interest from the banks. My mum even said my grandpa always used the interest earned from savings in the bank to give red packets to us. We had very generous red packets from my grandpa on every Chinese new year at that time. That was in the late 1980s and early 1990s.


What happened to those days where we see high savings account interest in Singapore?

Below shows the Deposit interest rates in Singapore:

Historical Data Chart
We can see that interest rates has fallen over the years. Let's look at the history of interest rates in Singapore learning from POSB.

History of POSB interest rates

Here are the interesting facts i found out:

In 1965, interest rates was at 3%
In 1968, interest rates was revised upwards from 3% to 4%

In 1974, POSB was transferred to become part of the Ministry of Finance and Credit POSB Pte Ltd was established in the same year to provide custom-tailored loans relating to HDB housing ownership. POSB also raise the interest rate to 4.5% p.a. for deposit on 1st Jan, 5% in July and 8% in August.

On 1 September 1978, POSB introduced a 2-tier interest rate with a 5.25% p.a. for the first $100,000 deposit and 3.5% for the subsequent amount.

In 1980, it introduced the Passcard, and set-up the Principal Branch. On 1 May 1980, POSB revised the 2-tier interest rate upwards with a 7% p.a. for the first $100,000 deposit and 5% for the subsequent amount.

In 1981, its first Cash-On-Line ATM opened at the Newton Branch. On 1 July 1981, POSB revised the 2-tier interest rate upwards with a 9% p.a. for the first $100,000 deposit and 6.5% for the subsequent amount.
I remembered my dad had a very old POSB cash-on-line atm card but i just couldn't find any pictures on it. It was grey in colour and had a card holder also. Maybe some of you would remember that.

On 1 Auguest 1981, the interest rates on the first $100,000 was revised upwards to 9.5%. This was a historical moment as it was the highest interest rate every recorded. 

The Post Office Savings Bank (POSB) was officially renamed as POSBank in March 1990. The word “Savings Bank” was dropped. On 1 June 1990, POSB adjusted the 2-tier interest rate upwards with a 4% p.a. for the first $100,000 deposit and 3% for the subsequent amount.

You would have realised that POSB has been paying higher interest rates on smaller amounts up to $100,000 and lower interest rates on subsequent amounts. This changed on 1 March 1998 due to the asian financial crisis. Commercial banks interest rates rose and this caused POSB to lose some of its bigger depositors. This prompted POSB to give higher interest rates of 4.125% to amounts above $100,000 and lower of 3.75% to amounts below $100,000

POSBank was fully acquired by DBS Bank on 16 November 1998. Witnessing the event were Finance Minister Dr. Richard Hu and DBS Bank Chairman Mr. S. Dhanabalan. This event marks the end of Savings Bank concept and welcome the new era of low interest loans in Singapore.

Mr. S. Dhanabalan, the Chairman of DBS Bank, declared that “POSBank cannot remain the way it is”. To start the ball rolling down hill, DBS announced on 18 November 1998 that POSBank Savings Account Balances, which is still tax-exempted, for the first $50,000 is at 2.25% p.a. down 0.5% and in excess of $50,000 at 2.25%. And swiftly on 10 December 1998 that POSBank Savings Account Balances for the first $50,000 adjusted downward to 1.5% p.a. and deposit in excess of $50,000 at 1.75%.

By year 2000, saving deposit interest rates dropped below 1% and has been even lower currently.

One good thing about the low interest rates on deposits was that loans interest rates also decreased significantly. Those who buy properties could borrow at a much lower rate which is also a cause of our sky-rocket housing prices currently as loans were very affordable.

Why we should invest?

At current low interest rates, our money becomes more and more worthless in the bank as inflation "eats" up a portion of our cash. Can we really feel the effects of inflation in our daily lives? If you ask the older generation, they would grumble about the higher prices today and compare the cheaper things they could buy back in the past. This is not their fault that they are complaining. They have live through the past and experienced things that we as younger people do not understand.

Let's look through at how much things cost in the past as compared to today. I found some interesting pictures on the internet. Pictures taken from remembersingapore.wordpress.com. Quite an interesting blog.

Bus tickets in Singapore. This one i remembered as i used to insert a transitlink card into the bus machine when i was in primary school and press a button for the correct fare and out comes a ticket like this. I guess this was much earlier than my time as its only 10cents per ticket. I remembered my student fare was 35cents at its cheapest for a non aircon bus. You should know how much prices are for public transport now.



Old movie tickets at $2.50 and $3 in 1985. Now? A weekday ticket at $7.50 and weekend ticket at $10.50. That's 3 times more expensive now.



HDB prices are the major increases. The current 4 room flat that i live in now cost $70,000 in the 1990s when my parents first bought it. Now it cost more than $300,000.



A bowl of fish ball noodle cost $2 in the 1990s. Now average cost around $3.


Will prices continue to rise? I'm sure it will unless our economy suffers a long recession and go into a deflationary mode. If this does happen, then we may lose our jobs too. We wouldn't want that to happen.

The purpose of me showing you the above price increase of different items is not to complain about the high cost of living but to bring to your attention that the same amount of money we have now will not buy us the same amount of things. In the 1960s and 1970s, people who have $1000 were considered those who are more well off. $1000 could buy you a lot of things and last you for months on food. Now, $1000 is nothing in our current economy. If we think that $100,000 is a lot for us now, it may be worth not much 10 years from now. With savings interest so low now, the need to invest become increasingly importantly. Or else, we will realise that our hard earned money saved is not enough for us to retire. Learn to invest and invest wisely.

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